The five-star eventing circus moves to Pau Horse Trials this week, as riders and horses gather for the final top-level event of 2025.
It’s a good field, with 59 pairs set to go to post, and plenty of quality. So who are my favourites for the title? Read on…
Former five-star winners
The line-up boasts two former five-star winners.
The first is the 18-year-old all-time great Ballaghmor Class, ridden by Oliver Townend – a four-time winner at the level at three different venues, holder of six other top-five finishes at five-star and an Olympic team gold medallist.
Bar being withdrawn at the final horse inspection at Badminton Horse Trials this year, he has a 100% top-five record at five-star and is the most experienced horse currently competing at this level in the world, by a distance. He recently proved his fitness with third on his prep run at Little Downham CCI4*-S and it’s hard to look past him. Perhaps the only thing counting against “Thomas” on paper is the fact he has no Pau form, but Oliver has plenty, including a second place in 2023 with Tregilder.
The other five-star winner is a contrast – she has won here but never really shown the same form anywhere else. It is of course Jonelle Price’s ride Grappa Nera, one of four horses she will pilot this week. The mare took top spot here in 2022 and was sixth at Badminton in 2024, but would need to upgrade her recent performances to have a chance of a second title.
Pau Horse Trials riders: the data favourite
Perhaps the most likely challenger to Oliver is his Tokyo Olympic team-mate, Tom McEwen, with Brookfield Quality. This pair were third here last year, fifth at Kentucky Three-Day Event in April and second at Aachen in July.
Nervous Norris, as the horse is known at home, is a character and moving him back down to lower-level events is part of keeping him confident between the big ones. He recently won the CCI3*-S at Cornbury – the same warm-up he had for Pau last year, which could bode well.
Data analytics company EquiRatings reckon they are the favourite, with a 19% win chance to Ballaghmor Class’s 12%.
Three seeking a first title
Emily King and Valmy Biats sit between Ballaghmor Class and Brookfield Quality according to EquiRatings, with a 15% win chance.
For me, they are part of a trio of long-standing five-star campaigners, who have quite different profiles but could all still lay claim to a title at this level – or retire over the next few years without one.
Emily and Valmy, with their outstanding dressage, are always at the forefront after the first phase when they turn up at a five-star, but they don’t have a great conversion rate for turning that into a top placing. In 10 starts at the level, they’ve managed three top-10 finishes, two of them at Badminton and one at Pau (eighth in 2022).
David Doel and Galileo Nieuwmoed ticked the consistency box until falling at both Badminton and Burghley this year – before that, they had seven top-15 finishes from nine starts at the level, including a second and a third.
That recent form will have damaged their statistical chance – EquiRatings give them a less than 1% win chance – but they won their CCI4*-S prep run at Little Downham and, I believe, have a bigger opportunity than that 1%. They have gone well at Pau in the past – fourth in 2022 when they were denied the title by a fence down, as well as 15th back in 2021.
Bubby Upton and Cola perhaps have the best chance of the three. They have six top-12 finishes from seven starts at five-star and course form in the shape of 12th here in 2021.
EquiRatings put them at 12% win chance, with Bubby also having a 9% chance on her Blenheim Europeans horse Its Cooley Time, who makes his five-star debut here after parting ways with his rider at the Europeans, and 3% on Cannavaro, who was sixth here in 2022 but has had some time out injured since.
Youth and experience
Two other pairs have a live win chance according to EquiRatings. They are Sarah Bullimore with the home-bred five-star debutant Corimiro and Yasmin Ingham, seeking to make amends for a fall at the Europeans with the experienced Rehy DJ.
At nine, Corimiro is probably too inexperienced to win this time, but he will hopefully build useful experience for the future this week.
Rehy DJ was 10th here last year as well as having twice finished third at Luhmühlen Horse Trials. My gut says he doesn’t quite have the star quality to take top spot here, but no one would begrudge the loveable “Piglet” another good finish after his sad elimination at Blenheim.
Predictions
A tough call, but if I have to commit to a podium from the Pau Horse Trials riders, it would be:
1st – Oliver Townend and Ballaghmor Class
2nd – Bubby Upton and Cola
3rd – Tom McEwen and Brookfield Quality
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